The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) issued its first drought update of Water Year 2027 on October 2, 2026. Thanks to several weeks of sustained rain, the Drought Monitoring Task Force (DMTF) has lifted the drought warning to a drought watch in 16 counties and 7 cities across the Northern Piedmont, Northern Virginia, and Shenandoah regions. However, drought continues across much of the Commonwealth — especially in the Roanoke River region, which remains under a drought emergency.

Virginia drought advisory map, October 2, 2026, showing drought watch, warning, and emergency regions

Drought Warning Lifted to Drought Watch

  • Northern Piedmont: Culpeper, Greene, Louisa, Madison, Orange, Rappahannock, Spotsylvania, and Stafford counties and the City of Fredericksburg
  • Northern Virginia: Arlington, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, and Prince William counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas, and Manassas Park
  • Shenandoah*: Clarke, Frederick, and Shenandoah counties and the City of Winchester

Drought Emergency (Unchanged)

  • Roanoke River: Bedford, Campbell, Charlotte, Franklin, Halifax, Henry, Mecklenburg, Patrick, Pittsylvania, and Roanoke counties and the cities of Danville, Martinsville, Roanoke, and Salem

Drought Warning (Unchanged)

  • Chowan: Brunswick, Dinwiddie, Greensville, Lunenburg, Nottoway, Prince George, Southampton, Surry, and Sussex counties and the cities of Emporia and Franklin
  • Eastern Shore: Accomack and Northampton counties
  • Middle James*: Albemarle, Amelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Buckingham, Cumberland, Fluvanna, Goochland, Nelson, Powhatan, and Prince Edward counties and the cities of Charlottesville and Lynchburg
  • Northern Coastal Plain: Caroline, Essex, Gloucester, King George, King William, King and Queen, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Northumberland, Richmond, and Westmoreland counties
  • Shenandoah*: Augusta, Page, Rockingham, and Warren counties and the cities of Harrisonburg, Staunton, and Waynesboro
  • Upper James: Alleghany, Bath, Botetourt, Craig, Highland, and Rockbridge counties and the cities of Buena Vista, Covington, and Lexington

Drought Watch (Unchanged)

  • New River: Bland, Carroll, Floyd, Giles, Grayson, Montgomery, Pulaski, and Wythe counties and the cities of Galax and Radford
  • Middle James*: Chesterfield, Hanover, and Henrico counties and the cities of Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, and Richmond
  • York-James: Charles City, James City, New Kent, and York counties and the cities of Hampton, Newport News, Poquoson, and Williamsburg
  • Southeast Virginia: Isle of Wight County and the cities of Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk, and Virginia Beach

*The DMTF listed a watch status for three counties and four cities in the Middle James region, and three counties and one city in the Shenandoah region; all other localities in those regions remain in warning status.

What Farmers Should Know

  • Streamflows in central Virginia remain below normal, particularly in the James, Roanoke, and South Fork Shenandoah River basins. Of 205 continuous stream gages, 19 were setting provisional record daily low flows.
  • Soil moisture remains drier than normal along central portions of the Blue Ridge and throughout southern areas east of the New River region.
  • Groundwater levels generally declined in line with seasonal patterns, with slight recovery in a few areas.
  • Reservoirs are within normal ranges except Smith Mountain Lake and John Kerr Reservoir (much below average) and Beaverdam Reservoir (slightly below average).
  • Precipitation over the past 30 days was below normal across much of the state, with parts of the Chowan, Roanoke, and Upper James regions receiving less than half of normal rainfall.
  • Agricultural impacts: Producers reported no new, immediate drought-related impacts this week as harvest continues statewide, but most regions report low stream, river, and pond levels.

The Virginia Department of Health reports that 400 public water systems are under voluntary restrictions and 45 are under mandatory restrictions, affecting about 45.76% of Virginia’s population. Governor Spanberger is encouraging all Virginians to conserve water.

Looking Ahead

The seven-day forecast calls for near- to slightly-above-normal rainfall of 0.75 to 1.5 inches across much of the state, with around two inches expected in far southwestern and southern areas. The National Weather Service predicts a strong El Niño pattern will bring higher-than-normal rainfall to Virginia this fall and winter.

The previous water year (Oct. 1, 2025 – Sept. 30, 2026) ended with an average statewide rainfall deficit of 9.7 inches. The DMTF will meet again on October 6.

Resources

Media contact: Irina Calos, (804) 659-1333, irina.calos@deq.virginia.gov

Source: Virginia Department of Environmental Quality